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Policy Research and Analysis on Afghanistan and the Afghan Diaspora for Government, Think Tanks and Foundations

Independent research on Afghanistan, Afghan refugees and the Afghan diaspora, carried out in Pashto, Dari and 22 more Afghan languages by scholars from the Afghan community, and written for the people who decide policy, funding and programs.

Capability Statement
Returns to Afghanistan
Onward movement and resettlement
Afghans in need of international protection, end-2025
Other measure or research coverage
Schematic, not to scale. Dot area follows UNHCR figures for Afghans in need of international protection at the end of 2025; the U.S. figure is people born in Afghanistan (ACS 2024). Sources below.
The numbers

The numbers that frame Afghanistan and Afghan diaspora research

Returns from Iran and Pakistan

Each dot is 100,000 people
2025: about 2.9 million[2]
2026 to September 22: 1,228,920, of whom 506,410 deported (black)[3]

Afghans in need of international protection abroad

End of 2025, largest host countries[1]
  • Iran
    1,600,000
  • Pakistan
    1,300,000
  • Germany
    288,300
  • France
    104,400
  • United Kingdom
    64,200

Afghans in the United States

233,938
born in Afghanistan, and 245,364 of Afghan ancestry.[4]
76,000+
evacuees resettled under Operation Allies Welcome by February 2022.[5]
Definition

What is Afghanistan and Afghan diaspora policy research?

Ariana Nexus is a Washington, D.C. consulting firm that researches Afghanistan and the Afghan diaspora for government agencies, think tanks and foundations. Our researchers interview, survey and read sources in Pashto, Dari and 22 more Afghan languages, then deliver policy analysis as briefs, rapid-response memos, diaspora surveys, datasets and full reports, with the sources, method and confidence behind every finding.

د افغانستان او بهرمېشتو افغانانو په اړه د پالیسۍ څېړنه او شننه

Pashto

پژوهش و تحلیل پالیسی دربارهٔ افغانستان و افغان‌های مقیم خارج

Dari
Key facts
  • Languages
    Pashto, Dari and 22 more Afghan languages. Reports in English and 12 more languages.
  • Who commissions
    Federal, state and local government, legislatures, think tanks, foundations and international organizations.
  • Formats
    Rapid-response memos, policy briefs, research reports, diaspora surveys and datasets, evaluations and briefings.
  • Turnaround
    Memo in 72 hours. Brief in two to three weeks. Study or survey in six to twelve weeks.
  • Reach
    Active in all 50 states and registered as a vendor in 37. Canada and Europe by project type and scale.
  • Safeguard
    No documents, data or inquiries routed through channels controlled by the de facto authorities in Afghanistan.
  • Registration
    SAM.gov active. UEI M2UDMUDFXGL9. CAGE 1Z3A3.
Research areas

Across the corridor: what we research

Inside Afghanistan

  • AF-04

    Women, girls and human rights

    The education ban, restrictions on work and movement, gender persecution and accountability, and what donors can fund safely.
  • AF-05

    Governance and international engagement

    How the Taliban govern, recognition and engagement, the UN mission, sanctions and the Doha process.
  • AF-06

    Humanitarian aid, economy and remittances

    Aid cuts, food security, drought and disasters, the banking system, hawala and remittances, the opium ban and livelihoods.

Across the region

  • AF-03

    Returns from Iran and Pakistan

    Mass returns and deportations, reintegration inside Afghanistan, protection risks and onward migration.
  • AF-07

    Security and the region

    The Pakistan–Afghanistan conflict, ISKP, Iran, Central Asia and China, and what they mean for U.S. and European interests.

Across the diaspora

  • AF-01

    Afghan evacuees, refugees and resettlement

    How Afghans resettled since 2021 are doing: work, income, housing, health, English and legal status, for SIV holders, parolees, asylum seekers and refugees.
  • AF-02

    U.S. and European policy toward Afghans

    Entry suspensions, the end of TPS, asylum and benefit holds, SIV processing, admission programs and deportations, and what they mean for families and communities.
  • AF-08

    The Afghan war and its legacy

    Lessons learned, moral injury and Afghan moral trauma among veterans, interpreters and Afghan allies, and the record of the war.
  • AF-09

    Language, media and AI

    The Pashto and Dari information space, disinformation, and how AI and machine translation perform in Afghan languages for public services.
Who commissions this research
  • Federal agencies

    Offices across State, Homeland Security, Health and Human Services, Defense and Veterans Affairs that need evidence on Afghanistan and on Afghans in the United States.
  • Congress and state legislatures

    Members and committee staff who need a hearing memo, a briefing or testimony support on a deadline.
  • State and local government

    State refugee coordinators, governors' offices, cities and counties with Afghan residents to serve and plan for.
  • Think tanks and policy institutes

    Programs in Washington, London, Berlin, Brussels and Ottawa that need primary data in Afghan languages, field access or a co-author.
  • Foundations and philanthropy

    Grantmakers funding Afghan women and girls, education, resettlement and human rights, for strategy, landscape reviews and evaluation.
  • International organizations

    UN agencies, development banks, EU institutions and international NGOs that need diaspora evidence or an independent evaluation.
Deliverables

What Ariana Nexus delivers

  • Rapid-response policy memo

    Three to five pages within 72 hours of a development: what happened, what it means for your mandate, and your options.
    3–5 pages
    72 hours
  • Policy brief

    One policy question answered in six to twelve pages, with findings, options and recommendations, ready for internal use or public release.
    6–12 pages
    2–3 weeks
  • Commissioned research report

    A full study with method, data annex and citations, peer reviewed by a scholar outside the project team before delivery.
    30–100 pages
    6–12 weeks
  • Afghan diaspora survey and dataset

    Sampling plan, questionnaire in Pashto, Dari and the languages your sample needs, fieldwork, weighted results, codebook and a de-identified dataset.
    Dataset and report
    8–12 weeks
  • Interviews and focus groups

    Key informant interviews and focus groups in the respondent's own language, dialect and region, with women interviewed by women.
    Transcripts and synthesis
    4–8 weeks
  • Program evaluation

    Evaluations of resettlement, integration, education and humanitarian programs against the OECD-DAC criteria, with findings a board can act on.
    Evaluation report
    8–16 weeks
  • Landscape and stakeholder mapping

    Who is who across Afghan diaspora organizations, service providers, donors and regional actors, and how they connect.
    Map and brief
    3–6 weeks
  • Briefings, testimony support and roundtables

    Expert briefings for leadership, preparation for congressional or parliamentary testimony, and closed-door roundtables under the Chatham House Rule.
    Briefing book
    By arrangement
How we deliver

Six stations from your question to a briefing

  1. Station 01

    Scope the question

    We start from the decision the research must inform: the question, the audience, the deadline and whether you will publish.
    You receive: A one-page scope within three business days
  2. Station 02

    Design and protect

    Method, sample and instruments in Pashto, Dari and the languages needed. The Cultural Compliance Bureau reviews every instrument; consent and risk review come before any fieldwork.
    You receive: Research design, instruments and risk review
  3. Station 03

    Collect in the respondent's language

    Native-speaking researchers run interviews, surveys and focus groups, matched for language, dialect, region and gender. Open sources in Pashto and Dari and public datasets complete the picture.
    You receive: Fieldwork log and data-quality checks
  4. Station 04

    Analyze and test

    Every judgment is tagged with its sources and a stated confidence level. Alternative explanations are tested, and a scholar outside the project team reviews the draft.
    You receive: Draft findings with sources and confidence
  5. Station 05

    Deliver and brief

    The memo, brief or report, with a methods note and data annex, followed by a briefing for your leadership in Washington, D.C., at your office or online.
    You receive: Final deliverable and leadership briefing
  6. Station 06

    Publish or protect

    If you publish, we prepare citation-ready files and Pashto and Dari summaries for the community. If you do not, distribution stays restricted and data is destroyed on schedule.
    You receive: Publication files or a destruction record
Why Ariana Nexus

Reach across the corridor, from Kandahar to California

No professional certification exists for research interviewers in Afghan languages. Ariana Nexus sets that standard itself: we train our own interviewers in consent, safeguarding and Afghan-language interviewing, and hold every study to it.

  • 24
    Afghan languages, from Pashto and Dari to Tregami and Brahui
  • 50
    States where we are active
  • 37
    States where we are registered as a vendor
  • 13
    Reporting languages: English and 12 more, for Canada and Europe
  1. 01

    Research in the respondent's language

    Our researchers conduct interviews in Pashto, Dari and 22 more Afghan languages themselves, matched for dialect, region and gender. Nothing important is lost through a third-party interpreter.
  2. 02

    Scholars, not bilinguals

    The team holds degrees from Cornell, Brown, the University of Chicago, the University of British Columbia and other leading universities. Speaking the language is where our standard starts, not where it ends.
  3. 03

    Trusted access to the community

    We come from the Afghan community we study. Afghan people speak more openly with researchers who share their language and history, and that changes what the evidence shows.
  4. 04

    Independent and nonpartisan

    We do not lobby or take institutional positions. You decide the question and whether to publish; you do not decide the findings. Every report states who paid for it.
  5. 05

    Security built into the method

    No office in Afghanistan, no data routed through channels controlled by the de facto authorities, and respondent identities removed at the point of collection.
  6. 06

    One firm, one point of accountability

    Design, fieldwork, analysis and writing are done by our own researchers, never another firm's, under one engagement lead from first call to final briefing.
Security and compliance

How we protect respondents, sources and your data

  • No routing through the de facto authorities

    No documents, data or inquiries pass through channels controlled by the de facto authorities in Afghanistan.
  • No presence inside Afghanistan

    We keep no office or staff in Afghanistan, by design. Research with people inside the country is remote, voluntary and based on informed consent.
  • Identities removed at collection

    Names never enter transcripts or datasets. Respondents are coded, and the key is held separately under restricted access.
  • Human-subjects protections

    Consent in the respondent's language and risk review before fieldwork, modeled on the Common Rule (45 CFR 46). Independent IRB review is arranged when a funder requires it.
  • Encrypted, access-controlled storage

    Research data stays in encrypted, access-controlled storage in the United States. European data is handled under GDPR and UK GDPR.
  • Federal survey rules planned in

    For surveys sponsored by a federal agency, Paperwork Reduction Act clearance is built into the schedule from the first week.
  • NDA first, no model training

    We sign your NDA before any material is shared, and your data is never used to train AI models.
  • Destruction on schedule

    Audio and working files are destroyed on a written schedule, with a record you can keep.
SAM.gov active · UEI M2UDMUDFXGL9 · CAGE 1Z3A3 · Registered vendor in 37 states
Research standards

Standards applied to every finding

  1. 01

    Sources and confidence on every judgment

    Each judgment names its sources and states high, moderate or low confidence.
  2. 02

    Facts, assumptions and judgments kept apart

    You can see what we know, what we assume and what we conclude.
  3. 03

    Alternative explanations tested

    Competing explanations are examined before a finding is written.
  4. 04

    Independent peer review

    A scholar outside the project team reviews every report before delivery.
  5. 05

    No invented figures or anecdotes

    Every number is sourced and dated. Corrections are made openly.
  6. 06

    Quotations checked in the original

    Pashto and Dari quotations are verified by a second native speaker in the Cultural Compliance Bureau.
  7. 07

    Findings are not for sale

    You decide what to publish, never what the findings say.
  8. 08

    Methods note and data annex

    Every deliverable shows how the work was done and where it falls short.

How we state likelihood

We express likelihood in the standard terms of U.S. Intelligence Community Directive 203 and state our confidence separately, so a reader never has to guess how sure we are.
  • Almost no chance
    1–5%
  • Very unlikely
    5–20%
  • Unlikely
    20–45%
  • Roughly even chance
    45–55%
  • Likely
    55–80%
  • Very likely
    80–95%
  • Almost certain
    95–99%
A single Afghanistan flag standing among hundreds of small United States flags on a lawn at Cornell University
Photograph: an Afghanistan flag among United States flags on a Cornell University lawn.
Team

The team behind this research

The people who do the work are alumni and scholars of Cornell, Brown, the University of Chicago, the University of British Columbia and other leading universities, from the Afghan community they research.

Hassan Ukasha
Program oversight

Hassan Ukasha

Managing Partner
, Ariana Nexus
Oversees the firm's operations and its policy research program, and signs off on the method and findings of every engagement.
  • B.S.
    Cornell University
  • M.P.H.
    Cornell University
Herat · Languages: Pashto and Dari (native); English, Urdu and Hindi; working Arabic
Delivery team
Zeba Haqbani

Zeba Haqbani

Senior Partner
Research systems and secure data infrastructure: survey platforms, encrypted storage and the firm's AI tools.
  • B.Sc.
    University of British Columbia
Lived in Kabul
Hussain Ahmad

Hussain Ahmad

Analyst
Survey design, sampling and quantitative analysis, from questionnaire to weighted estimates and datasets.
  • M.Eng.
    Cornell University
  • Ph.D.
    University of Chicago
Wasil Peroz

Wasil Peroz

Principal
Law and policy frameworks: asylum and migration law, European policy and institutional analysis.
  • B.A.
    Milli University
  • M.Sc.
    Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg
Maryam Safi

Maryam Safi

Principal
Qualitative research: interviews, focus groups and community engagement across the diaspora.
  • B.A.
    Cornell University
Contributing specialists
Tamana Ghaznawi

Tamana Ghaznawi

Senior Partner
Health policy and Afghan diaspora health research.
  • B.S.
    Cornell University
  • M.P.H.
    Cornell University
Lived in Kabul
Diana Ayubi

Diana Ayubi

Engagement Manager
Mental health, trauma and moral injury research, and the researcher wellbeing protocol.
  • B.A.
    Cornell University
  • Psy.D.
    West Chester University
Lived in Kabul
Shukria Sakhi

Shukria Sakhi

Engagement Manager
Program evaluation and public health policy.
  • B.S.
    Brown University
  • M.P.H.
    Brown University
  • Cultural Compliance Bureau

    Reviews every Pashto and Dari instrument, consent form, quotation and translation before it is used or published.
  • Language specialist bench

    Native researchers and interviewers across the 24 Afghan languages, matched to dialect, region and gender.
  • Unnamed analysts

    Some of our analysts are not named publicly. Research on Afghanistan can put their families at risk, and we protect them as we protect respondents.
Languages

Where each of the 24 Afghan languages is spoken

Pashto interviews are matched by regional variety, from Kandahar to Nangarhar, and Dari interviews by dialect, such as Kabuli, Herati, Panjshiri or Hazaragi.

  • South, east and southeast

    • Pashto
      South, east and southeast; the largest language of the diaspora in Pakistan
  • Kabul, the center and the west

    • Dari
      Kabul, the north, the west and the central highlands
    • Aimaq
      West-central Afghanistan: Ghor, Badghis and Herat
    • Ormuri
      Logar, Baraki Barak
    • Parachi
      Kapisa and Parwan valleys
  • The north

    • Uzbeki
      The north: Faryab, Jowzjan, Balkh and beyond
    • Turkmeni
      The north, along the Turkmenistan border
  • Badakhshan and the Wakhan

    • Wakhi
      The Wakhan, Badakhshan
    • Shughni
      Badakhshan, along the Panj
    • Sanglechi
      Badakhshan
    • Ishkashimi
      Badakhshan, Ishkashim
    • Munji
      Badakhshan, Munjan valley
    • Yidgha
      Across the border from Munjan, in Chitral
    • Kyrgyz
      The Pamirs of the Wakhan
  • The east: Kunar, Nuristan, Laghman and Nangarhar

    • Pashayi
      Kunar, Laghman, Nangarhar and Kapisa
    • Gawarbati
      Kunar, along the river
    • Tirahi
      Nangarhar, few remaining speakers
    • Nuristani (Ashkun)
      Nuristan
    • Kati
      Nuristan and Kunar
    • Prasun
      Nuristan, the Parun valley
    • Waigali
      Nuristan, the Waigal valley
    • Tregami
      Nuristan, Katar and Gambir villages
  • The south and southwest

    • Balochi
      The southwest: Nimruz and Helmand
    • Brahui
      The south and southwest
Reporting languages
  • English
  • French
    Français
  • German
    Deutsch
  • Spanish
    Español
  • Italian
    Italiano
  • Hebrew
    עברית
  • Urdu
    اردو
  • Arabic
    العربية
  • Hindi
    हिन्दी
  • Portuguese
    Português
  • Chinese
    中文
  • Russian
    Русский
  • Turkish
    Türkçe
This service in your language
We work in Canada and Europe depending on the type and scale of the project, under GDPR and UK GDPR where they apply, and report in the working language of the institution that commissions us.
  • Deutsch
    Politikforschung und -analyse zu Afghanistan und zur afghanischen Diaspora
  • Français
    Recherche et analyse des politiques sur l’Afghanistan et la diaspora afghane
  • Español
    Investigación y análisis de políticas sobre Afganistán y la diáspora afgana
  • Italiano
    Ricerca e analisi delle politiche sull’Afghanistan e sulla diaspora afghana
  • Português
    Pesquisa e análise de políticas sobre o Afeganistão e a diáspora afegã
  • Türkçe
    Afganistan ve Afgan diasporası üzerine politika araştırması ve analizi
  • Русский
    Исследование и анализ политики в отношении Афганистана и афганской диаспоры
  • العربية
    بحوث وتحليل السياسات بشأن أفغانستان والشتات الأفغاني
  • اردو
    افغانستان اور افغان تارکینِ وطن سے متعلق پالیسی تحقیق و تجزیہ
  • हिन्दी
    अफ़ग़ानिस्तान और अफ़ग़ान प्रवासी समुदाय पर नीति अनुसंधान और विश्लेषण
  • עברית
    מחקר וניתוח מדיניות בנושא אפגניסטן והתפוצה האפגנית
  • 中文
    关于阿富汗及阿富汗海外侨民的政策研究与分析
Research record

Selected Ariana Nexus research

Abstracts are public. Full documents are available to partners and clients on request.

  • Research report · Private Enterprise

    Businesses Afghans Can Build in North America

    93 pages · AN·PE·2026·03 · Hassan Ukasha
    View publication
  • Publication · Education and Research

    Afghan Student Enrollment and Engagement in U.S. School Districts

    36 pages · AN·ED·2026·02 · Ariana Nexus
    View publication
  • Publication · Healthcare and Life Sciences

    Afghan Patient Access and Retention in U.S. Health Systems

    28 pages · Ariana Nexus
    View publication
  • Publication, in preparation · Cross-industry

    Afghan Language Governance in Healthcare, AI, Law Enforcement and Cross-Border Data

    In preparation · Ariana Nexus
    View publication
Commissioning

How to commission Afghanistan policy research

Engagement models
  • Standing research partnership

    Annual
    A named team, a quarterly research agenda set with you, rapid-response memos on call and briefings for your leadership.
  • Commissioned study

    6–12 weeks
    One defined question, method and deliverable: a brief, report, survey or evaluation.
  • Rapid-response memo

    72 hours
    A three-to-five page memo on a development, delivered within 72 hours of your request.
  • Evaluation and learning partner

    Multi-year
    Evaluation of a program or grant portfolio over several years, with a learning review each year.
How institutions buy
Buyer
How to commission
Federal agencies
SAM.gov active (UEI M2UDMUDFXGL9, CAGE 1Z3A3). Purchase orders, simplified acquisitions, or through a prime contractor.
State and local government
Registered vendor in 37 states and active in all 50.
Think tanks and universities
Research partner or subcontract on your grant or contract, with co-authorship by agreement.
Foundations
Services agreement for strategy research and evaluation. Where a grant is the vehicle, we partner with your grantee.
Canada and Europe
By project type and scale, under GDPR and UK GDPR where they apply.
Questions

Questions about Afghanistan policy research

What is policy research on Afghanistan and the Afghan diaspora?

It is research that answers a specific policy question about Afghanistan or about Afghans living abroad, for example how Afghan evacuees are faring in the United States, what returns from Iran and Pakistan mean for aid, or which programs for Afghan girls can be funded safely. Ariana Nexus delivers it as memos, briefs, reports, surveys and datasets for government agencies, think tanks and foundations.

Who commissions Afghanistan policy research from Ariana Nexus?

Federal, state and local government offices, legislatures, think tanks, foundations, international organizations and university research teams. Each receives a named team, a written scope and a deliverable built for its decision.

Can you research conditions inside Afghanistan?

Yes, without a presence there. We keep no office or staff in Afghanistan, and no data passes through channels controlled by the de facto authorities. We combine remote interviews with consenting respondents, returnees and diaspora networks, Pashto and Dari open sources, and public datasets from the UN and the World Bank, and we state the limits of each source.

Which languages do your researchers work in?

Pashto, Dari and 22 more Afghan languages: Aimaq, Balochi, Ormuri, Parachi, Wakhi, Shughni, Sanglechi, Ishkashimi, Munji, Yidgha, Uzbeki, Turkmeni, Kyrgyz, Pashayi, Gawarbati, Tirahi, Nuristani (Ashkun), Kati, Prasun, Waigali, Tregami and Brahui. We report in English, French, German, Spanish, Italian, Hebrew, Urdu, Arabic, Hindi, Portuguese, Chinese, Russian and Turkish. Pashto interviews are matched by regional variety, and Dari interviews by dialect, such as Kabuli, Herati, Panjshiri or Hazaragi.

How quickly can you deliver?

A rapid-response memo in 72 hours, a policy brief in two to three weeks, and a commissioned study or survey in six to twelve weeks, depending on the sample and method. Surveys sponsored by a federal agency add time for Paperwork Reduction Act clearance, which we schedule from the start.

How do you protect respondents and sources?

Identities are removed at the point of collection, data is encrypted and access-controlled, and nothing is routed through the de facto authorities in Afghanistan. Women are interviewed by women, consent is taken in the respondent's language, and some of our analysts are not named publicly for their families' safety.

Are you independent and nonpartisan?

Yes. Ariana Nexus does not lobby or take institutional positions. Clients set the question and decide whether to publish; they do not set the findings. Funding and any conflicts of interest are declared in every report.

Can you survey the Afghan diaspora in the United States, Canada and Europe?

Yes. We are active in all 50 states and registered as a vendor in 37, and we work in Canada and Europe depending on the type and scale of the project. Samples are built from community networks and listed frames, and each report states the method and its limits.

Do you research the Afghan war's legacy, moral injury and Afghan moral trauma?

Yes. We study how the war and the 2021 withdrawal affect veterans, interpreters, Afghan allies and their families, using trauma-informed interview protocols set by Diana Ayubi, Psy.D. Findings inform policy and services; they are not clinical assessments.

Can we publish the research under our own name?

Yes. You can publish under your name, co-brand with Ariana Nexus, or keep the work internal. We prepare citation-ready files and Pashto and Dari summaries for the community.

Are you registered for government contracts?

Yes. Ariana Nexus is active in SAM.gov (UEI M2UDMUDFXGL9, CAGE 1Z3A3) and registered as a vendor in 37 states. Federal agencies can buy through purchase orders and simplified acquisitions, or through a prime contractor.

Can a foundation fund this research?

Yes. Most foundations commission us under a services agreement. Where a grant is the funding vehicle, we can serve as the research partner to your grantee.

How do you use AI in your research?

AI helps with draft transcription, search and data checks. It never writes findings, every Pashto and Dari quotation is checked by a native-speaking researcher, and client data is never used to train AI models.

How is this different from an Afghanistan country conditions report?

A country conditions report is expert evidence for one asylum or immigration case. Policy research answers questions about populations, programs and policy for institutions. For an individual case, see our Afghanistan country conditions expert reports.

Sources for figures on this page

  1. 1
    About 3.7 million Afghan refugees and others in need of international protection lived abroad at the end of 2025: 1.6 million in Iran, 1.3 million in Pakistan, 288,300 in Germany, 104,400 in France and 64,200 in the United Kingdom. UNHCR, Global Trends 2025 (June 2026)
  2. 2
    About 2.9 million Afghans returned from Iran and Pakistan in 2025. UNHCR, Global Trends 2025 (June 2026)
  3. 3
    1,228,920 Afghans returned from Iran and Pakistan in 2026 as of September 22, including 506,410 deportations. UNHCR Afghanistan situation data portal (September 22, 2026)
  4. 4
    233,938 people born in Afghanistan live in the United States, and 245,364 report Afghan ancestry. U.S. Census Bureau, 2024 American Community Survey 1-year, tables B05006 and B04006
  5. 5
    More than 76,000 Afghan evacuees had moved into U.S. communities under Operation Allies Welcome by February 2022. U.S. Department of Homeland Security (February 19, 2022)
Reviewed September 27, 2026 by Hassan Ukasha, Managing Partner. Figures on this page are sourced and dated, and policy facts are reviewed monthly.

Commission research on Afghanistan and the Afghan diaspora

Tell us the decision your research must inform. A senior researcher will reply within one business day with questions, a method and a timeline.

Request a research proposal
Conversations are confidential. We sign your NDA before any material is shared.